Ethiopia’s Cessation of Hostilities: Winning the War, Losing the Peace?   - Democracy Paradox

In an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed on November 2nd an agreement on a permanent cessation of hostilities (CoH), signalling a first step in ending a two-year war in the Ethiopian northernmost region, one of the least known, but most deadly armed conflicts in the world. Mediated by the African Union, the deal came as a result of the Ethiopian federal forces and its allies’ recent military advances and a TPLF under severe pressure of defeat.  This led to an agreement totally on the terms of the victor, leaving out critical issues and making it hard for the losing part to defend the deal in front of its constituencies.  In this way, the win in the war may undermine the chances of the successful implementation, increasing the risk of losing the peace.